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ARP+ Insights

Here, our research team sheds light on investment opportunities and strategies, along with sharing our thoughts on current events and developments that have implications for our strategies.

Featured
Research
6
December 2024
The Trump Agenda
–
What four years with Trump in power means for inflation and GDP growth in the US
For at least the next two years President-elect Trump will benefit from a Red majority in both chambers of Congress. This provides him with sufficient power to hold most of his promises from his campaign. What impact will his policies have on the US?
Research
14
November 2024
The Coming Surge in Power Demand
–
Could Trump upset the cart?
During his election campaign, Donald Trump promised to lower energy costs for Americans. Will he be able to acheive this and what does this mean for electrification in the US?
Opinion
6
November 2024
Post-Election Update - What’s Next?
–
With the outcome of the US election now broadly determined, we provide our initial reaction to the outcome.
Research
22
October 2024
The Next Phase of AI Investing
–
Since the initial wave of excitement around AI, the story has evolved. Investors may benefit from categorising different types of companies exposed to AI into phases to better understand which areas to invest in now and where to avoid.
Research
26
September 2024
Time to Go Big on Commodities?
–
Commodities have historically gone through cycles of being undervalued compared to equities followed by great commodity bull runs. Read this paper to find out why we may be at this inflection point and how may be able to benefit from it.
Opinion
27
August 2024
Are we being alarmist about the US elections?
–
Maybe, but it’s good to understand the moving parts…
Election Day 2024 will not be the end of the story when Americans select their next President. So many spanners can be thrown in the wheels between Election Day and Inauguration Day that you need to take your precautions.
Research
20
August 2024
Time to Offload Economic Beta?
–
Part II of II – where to invest
It is rare for one sector to dominate stock markets for very extended periods of time. If the economy is indeed slowing down is it time for investors to starting looking away from tech to find the next big winner?
Research
13
August 2024
Time to Offload Economic Beta?
–
Part I of II
In early August, equities suddenly fell out of bed, and equity market volatility spiked. While things have since calmed, investors remain tense. What caused this sell-off in equities and how should investors brace for more volatility?
Opinion
12
August 2024
It Is Time to Think About a Kam-arket
–
How is the US Presidential election race shaping up just a few weeks after President Joe Biden stepped away with Vice President Kamala Harris now the Democratic nominee?
Research
22
July 2024
Uranium – the misunderstood Trump Trade
–
As markets increasingly expect Trump to win the US elections, green stocks have suffered as part of the 'Trump Trade' including uranium. However, classifying uranium as a Trump Trade is a great mistake which investors should take advantage of.
Research
11
July 2024
Is AI a Pie in the Sky?
–
Everybody raves about it but the naked facts are less than ebullient
AI is a very promising new technology, destined to accelerate economic growth, but the take-up has so far been minimal. What are we missing? Is it only a pie in the sky? Should we all moderate our expectations for future productivity growth?
Research
13
June 2024
More on Datacentre Cooling Systems
–
What are the alternatives to water-based cooling?
Water-based cooling systems, while just one of many cooling systems used in datacentres, use an outsized amount of water. With the number of datacentres expected to rise significantly alternatives to this technology must emerge.
Research
7
June 2024
What to Expect From Gold When the Monetary Policy Regime is Changing
–
and why it could offer a very convenient hedge against a selloff in US equities
Demand for gold has risen significantly over the last couple of years, the majority of which comes from central banks. There are a number of reasons why central banks have been buying gold, but what could this mean for gold's place in a portfolio?
Research
13
May 2024
White Hydrogen
–
The Game-Changing New Energy Form
There are a number of different 'colours' of hydrogen including grey, blue, green and pink. White hydrogen is the latest form of hydrogen and it is unique in that it is naturally produced in the Earth's crust. Could it be a game changer?
Opinion
1
May 2024
The US Senate Bans Imports of Enriched Uranium from Russia
–
The US Senate voted yesterday evening to ban imports of enriched uranium from Russia. What does this mean for the broader uranium market?
Research
29
April 2024
Ceramic Heat Dissipation Substrates
–
an alternative to water-based cooling systems
Data centres require enormous amounts of water for their cooling systems, and an alternative is desperately required. Here is one.
Research
12
April 2024
Out-of-Control Public Deficits
–
Worldwide, government debt-to-GDP is now nearly 100%, and governments seem not to care. Should you?
Research
14
March 2024
Demise of the DM Growth Model
–
Three megatrends have a negative impact on GDP growth, leading us to expect lower returns than we have enjoyed in recent years.
Research
6
February 2024
Some Thoughts on Productivity Growth
–
and the Investment Implications
Productivity growth is falling short of expectations in many countries. When combined with a problematic demographic outlook, it spells little or no economic growth, and you’ll need to approach portfolio construction quite differently.
Research
15
January 2024
Project Ignition
–
the Main Risk to the Uranium Bull Story
Uranium has been on an incredible run and it seems like there is no stopping it. But will the development of fusion energy pose a threat to the uranium bull story?
Opinion
5
January 2024
Healthcare in Election Years
–
A Hot Potato?
Healthcare stocks almost always underperform the broader market in presidential election years. Is it going to happen this year too?
Opinion
6
December 2023
Clickbait Galore
–
Are we being told the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about climate change? No, so help us God.
Research
8
November 2023
The Importance of Virtual Water
–
There is more to the water story than meets the eye
Water supplies are dwindling, yet more water is used every day. A new approach to water management shall therefore be required.
Research
19
October 2023
The End of the Lithium Bull Market?
–
Lithium is the greenest of all green metals and is in great demand, so one wonders why lithium prices are so weak. Read here why.
Opinion
7
September 2023
A Few Facts about the Changing Climate
–
The planet is 4.5 billion years old and the climate system far more complex than you are led to believe. One can therefore argue that thinking we can fix everything by reducing carbon dioxide emission levels is probably a tad naïve.
Research
23
August 2023
Another (Timely) Update on Uranium
–
Extreme weather over the summer has raised the red flag, and nuclear energy could end up as the big winner, if our political leaders mean it seriously when they say they want to phase out fossil fuels, but are they serious?
Research
14
August 2023
The End of Indexing?
–
We no longer believe investing passively is a winning strategy. What worked so well in the raging bull market of yesteryear is now struggling to beat active investing, and it is all about the type of market we are in. We suggest you read on…
Research
21
July 2023
AI
–
Is AI the seventh wonder of the world? Will it effectively address the growing shortage of workers everywhere, or does it spell the end of the human race? However, one thing is given – AI will accelerate the rate of economic growth.
Research
7
June 2023
The Future Belongs to Graphene
–
Graphene, a groundbreaking 2D material, promises numerous scientific advancements. Initial breakthroughs include enhancing lithium-ion batteries for significant smartphone and electric car performance improvements. But there's much more to come.
Research
15
May 2023
How DLE will Change the Lithium Industry
–
DLE is a new lithium extraction method which will affect the lithium industry dramatically in the years to come. The new technology cannot be adopted by mining companies, though. Therefore, lithium miners could struggle to compete longer term.
Research
21
April 2023
Is It Time to Turn Bullish?
–
Our negative views on equities are being moderated, as the ongoing slowdown may actually not turn into a full-blown recession.
Research
14
March 2023
The Future Belongs to Green Hydrogen
–
The production of green hydrogen will be ramping up fast over the next few years, particularly in the US. Between green hydrogen and lithium-ion batteries, we are not that many years away from being able to bin fossil fuels completely.
Research
23
February 2023
Why Megatrend Investing is a Winning Formula
–
Investing thematically is very different from conventional investing. As a result, you often end up with a portfolio that looks very different, but that is likely to work in your favour over time. Here is why.
Research
7
February 2023
Why Commodities May Defy the Odds in 2023
–
Could commodity prices, despite a soft economic outlook, go higher this year? Yes, and I can think of at least five reasons why commodities may perform better than what economic fundamentals in Europe and the US would suggest.
Research
21
December 2022
Why Wealth-to-GDP Must Mean-Revert
–
Years of asset price inflation has driven wealth-to-GDP to unsustainable levels, and a drop in wealth is due. There is a macroeconomic reason why that is but, as you will see, there is also a microeconomic reason why wealth-to- GDP is due a reset.
Research
7
December 2022
Cryptocurrencies Unplugged
–
Bitcoin is down ca. 75% from its all-time high and almost 50% from the level it was at when we first wrote about cryptocurrencies in early 2021. Is the party truly over, or is this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to pick it up very cheaply?
Research
23
November 2022
The Future of Carbon Capture
–
Could a few, new technologies change the climate outlook?
COP27 ended with an agreement, but not one that will do the climate any good. We are therefore dependant on new technologies to fix what appears to be an unfixable problem. Fortunately, a set of new technologies, eg. CCS, CCUS & DAC, are underway.
Opinion
15
November 2022
Banks to Come Back into Fashion
–
With interest rates rising higher and faster than expected, there is understandably a lot of concern in financial markets. However, will banks see a direct uplift to profits through higher rates…and will this translate to higher share prices?
Opinion
10
November 2022
Conclusions or No Conclusions from China's NPC
–
China’s 20th National People’s Congress took place towards the end of October and President Xi secured his third term. There were many other points that were discussed, but what are the main conclusions that investors should be taking away from this?
Research
7
November 2022
The End of the Private Equity Era?
–
Why the ongoing regime change will also affect PE returns
PE has returned 14.3% annually over the past 25 years, outperforming pretty much every other asset class. Can that continue?
Research
12
October 2022
The Implications of Declining Wealth-to-GDP
–
Wealth has grown faster than GDP for the past 20 years but cannot do so in the long run. Therefore, investment implications are serious, particularly if you are a US investor, as US wealth is more out of line than wealth in the rest of the world.
Opinion
4
October 2022
Gilt Gyrations
–
In the UK, the Chancellor’s mini budget on Friday 23rd September, created turbulence in the gilts and sterling markets. The Bank of England stepped in and stabilised these markets, but how does this affect its credibility and can this stability last?
Research
26
September 2022
Nuclear 2.0 & 3.0
–
Fossil fuels will be with us for many years unless we are prepared to expand nuclear. In this paper, I argue why there are many good reasons to do precisely that and how to take advantage from an investment point of view. Read on to learn more.
Opinion
22
September 2022
The Sustainability of Food
–
The World Food Programme reports that more than 1 in 9 people go hungry every day. The food and agricultural industry is also a massive contributor to global emissions. The rise in sustainability will boost a wide range of investment opportunities.
Opinion
20
September 2022
The Future of Food Prices
–
Food prices spiked a great deal in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite seeing easing prices over the last few months, we believe that the supply and demand dynamics of agricultural commodities points to elevated prices.
Opinion
13
September 2022
The Unsustainability Discount in Real Estate
–
The real estate landscape is due for a significant change given the greater focus on ESG and decarbonisation. Unsustainable assets will take a hit on valuations, returns and future sale prospects. This means investors must act now.
Research
9
September 2022
Swimming in Troubled Waters
–
The mix of freshwater scarcity and rising seawater levels is a great challenge facing society today and desalination is not the solution. In this paper, I will look at more sustainable solutions, and I will assess how you best invest in water.
Research
26
August 2022
From Liquidity to Fundamentals
–
Equity investors have benefitted from exceptionally benign liquidity conditions in recent years, but the party is over. Economic fundamentals are taking charge, and you should worry, because a recession is looming and the outlook is dire.
Research
5
August 2022
The Downfall of the Doomsday Prophets
–
Why the global population will never reach 10 billion
In this paper, I will argue that fears regarding overpopulation ignore some simple facts which will turn population growth into population decline much earlier than predicted by the UN today, and I will assess the investment implications thereof.
Opinion
21
July 2022
Responsible Investing at Absolute Return Partners
–
Find out about our approach towards Responsible Investing here at Absolute Return Partners.
Research
6
July 2022
Update on Investing in Secondaries
–
The landscape for investing in private equity secondaries has developed significantly from where it was in November 2016, when we wrote our last paper on the topic. As a result an update on this investment opportunity was due.
Research
13
May 2022
Lithium-Ion Batteries or Hydrogen Fuel Cells?
–
Thoughts on How to Play This Theme
As the demand for energy continues to rise globally and governments around the world try to control global warming, the debate between whether lithium-ion batteries and hydrogen energy will prevail is an important one to follow.
Opinion
26
April 2022
A Global Recession? Why the probability of a Worldwide Economic Contraction Is Rising
–
The presentation attached is a presentation I gave to the IC of a UK wealth management firm earlier today. As you can see, I believe the probability of a global recession has risen as a result of the Russian invasion in Ukraine.
Opinion
18
March 2022
Upcoming infrastructure
–
Infrastructure is an asset class which typically performs well in times of high inflation and often contributes to the transition towards a green economy. Find out what we believe are the best areas of infrastructure are to invest in.
Opinion
11
March 2022
Private vs public companies
–
There is a trend that companies are staying private for longer and some are no longer considering listing publicly at all. Although in the past it was more difficult for investors to access private companies, this is not the case anymore.
Opinion
4
March 2022
Convertible Bonds
–
We continue to believe inflation and the associated interest rate hikes are the biggest risks investors will face as we move further into 2022. Read on to find out why convertible bonds should be well placed to outperform other asset classes.
Research
7
February 2022
Uranium
–
The Ultimate Defensive Investment?
If you don’t hold uranium in your portfolio, you should consider it. Nuclear energy is now deemed green in the EU which can only result in more nuclear power plants; however, the uranium price is too low to justify the opening of new mines.
Opinion
21
January 2022
The newest (at least to me) tech neologism: Proptech
–
Technological disruption, for a long time, has been the central driver of growth all around the world. Although the real estate sector has not needed to innovate in the past, the emergence of proptech could be a sign that the industry is changing.
Opinion
17
December 2021
2022 Market Outlook
–
A year of "normalisation"
Read our market outlook for 2022 for our thoughts on what 2022 will look like for a range of asset classes.
Strategy
19
November 2021
Climate Change -Part III
–
How to Construct a Climate Change Portfolio
This is the third and final part on how to construct a portfolio, positively exposed to climate change. Obviously, investors’ desires and constraints vary widely, which must be kept in mind, but we believe the attached forms a good starting point.
Research
3
November 2021
The Many Challenges of Going Green
–
Temperatures are likely to continue rising well after many net-zero pledges are met unless more radical action is taken to minimise the problem. Find out why this is and how this should impact your portfolio construction.
Strategy
3
November 2021
Climate Change - Part II
–
How to Invest in Climate Change in Private Markets
Private markets will be at the heart of the climate change investment and impact opportunities. Read on to find out what are the most compelling climate change opportunities in private markets.
Strategy
21
September 2021
Climate Change - Part I
–
How to Invest in Climate Change in Public Markets
Investors have a unique role to play in the climate crisis and can benefit from the tailwinds of government action and changing consumer sentiment. Find out about the most compelling climate change opportunities in public markets.
Research
19
July 2021
Thorium
–
Is thorium-fuelled reactors the next big thing?
Thorium is a metal unknown to most people, but it has some interesting characteristics. For example, it appears to be a much better choice than uranium as nuclear fuel, so why hasn’t it displaced uranium? Read on if you want to know why.
Research
21
May 2021
Hydrogen (Part II)
–
A Great Opportunity or Another False Start?
In this second part, I will explain why the true cost of electricity from renewables is much higher than generally perceived, but also why new hydrogen-based technologies could change that. I will also discuss the implications for other energy forms.
Research
11
May 2021
Hydrogen (Part I)
–
The missing piece of the jigsaw?
Not all vehicles can be electrified. Another green fuel is therefore needed. Hydrogen could be the answer to that, but it is not a road without bumps. In this part I, we will review a couple of new technologies which will turn CO2 in to an asset.
Research
8
April 2021
The Productivity Conundrum (Part IV of IV)
–
The Ultimate Solution: Fusion Energy
Investment opportunities rarely come bigger than this. The rewards will be immense, most likely the biggest you will see in your lifetime, which is why it is so important that you read this paper and find room in your portfolio for the opportunity.
Research
16
March 2021
The Productivity Conundrum (Part III of IV)
–
The Power of Digitisation
Digitisation of society is a powerful productivity agent, and the combined rollout of AI, IoT, driverless cars and blockchain could, between them, have a major impact on productivity. Even better, it also presents plenty of investment opportunities.
Research
22
January 2021
Cryptocurrency Mania
–
Is bitcoin a currency, a risk-off asset or …? In this paper, I argue that it doesn’t matter so long as it adds attractive portfolio attributes. That said, this is not an unconditional endorsement. I see many potholes in the road in front of us.
Strategy
18
December 2020
How to invest in water
–
‘Running Out of Freshwater’ is one of the key associated investment themes identified within our wider ‘Climate Change’ megatrend which we believe will create attractive investment opportunities over time. Find out how to gain exposure to the theme.
Strategy
19
November 2020
To Be or Not to Be?
–
A note on Responsible Investing
The pandemic has amplified our questioning of the world around us. It is only natural, that as an investor, you should be questioning the environmental and social implications of your investments.
Research
3
November 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part V of V)
–
How we would structure a natural resource portfolio
We have finally arrived at the final part of our paper on natural resource investing, and this one is about how to structure tomorrow’s natural resource portfolio, taking into account the impact of digitisation and of climate change.
Research
10
September 2020
A Future of Pedestrian Economic Growth
–
Why you cannot assume robots will save our bacon
Investors often assume adverse demographics will have only limited effect on GDP growth. The introduction of robots will see to that. We don’t agree. In this paper you can see why.
Research
26
August 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part IV of V)
–
Why investing in natural resources will be a very different proposition in the future
Investing in natural resources shall require a change in strategy, and graphite could turn into the resource of the 21st century. Here is why.
Research
3
August 2020
Investing in Natural Resources in a Changing World (Part III of V)
–
Why it is impossible to overstate the severity of the pending water crisis
Water is a growing problem. While some countries will suffer from severe scarcity problems in the years to come, other countries are at risk from (literally) drowning in water.
Research
7
July 2020
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part II of V)
–
The Fossil Fuel-Free Energy of the Future
With 85% of all the electricity produced around the world every day coming from fossil fuels and with the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere growing incessantly, the world is eager to replace fossil fuels as soon as possible.
Research
23
June 2020
Investing in Natural Resources In a Changing World (Part I of V)
–
Primary Energy
Our natural resources are stressed, because of rising living standards but also because of climate change. Something will have to happen but what?
Strategy
6
May 2020
Credit Dislocation Opportunities in the Midst of the COVID-19 Crisis
–
There are currently substantial dislocations in the credit markets as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. ARP believes pronounced investment opportunities exist across a number of credit markets.
Research
18
March 2020
The Bull Case on Uranium
–
Uranium is a controversial subject, but I am nevertheless convinced that a very interesting investment opportunity is presenting itself.
Research
11
February 2020
The Emerging Opportunity in Shipping
–
Fundamentals in the shipping industry are about to change profoundly. After having been in a bear market for most of the last decade, shipping prices should improve again almost regardless of overall economic conditions.
Strategy
10
December 2019
Investing in Music Royalties
–
An investment in music royalties has a number of attractive characteristics, particularly a stable recurring yield, longevity of copyright protection and a low economic beta.
Research
10
October 2019
The Productivity Conundrum (Part II of IV)
–
As fusion energy is still at least 10-15 years away from commercialisation, we will rely on the Digital Revolution to boost productivity at least for another decade or so.
Research
8
October 2019
The Productivity Conundrum (Part I of IV)
–
The implications of slowing productivity growth for many developed countries are serious. In Paper 1, we explore what productivity really is, and how its stagnation will impact the global economy.
Research
8
October 2019
TFP vis-à-vis Labour Productivity - why TFP is the best measure of productivity in the digital age
–
Economists operate with two measures of productivity – labour productivity and total factor productivity. The two are sometimes used more or less interchangeably, seemingly without people realising they are actually quite different.
Research
13
September 2019
Beta vis-à-vis Correlation Coefficients - how the two measures differ
–
Beta and correlation are important indicators for assets, but are often confused with each other.
Strategy
2
September 2019
Regulatory Capital Relief
–
Regulatory Capital Relief is an investment strategy whereby non-bank investors underwrite losses on portfolios of bank loans, in return for a coupon linked to the bank’s cost of capital.
Research
27
November 2018
The Biggest Opportunity of a Lifetime?
–
A new generation has been ‘born’ - the Selfie Generation - and they continue to have a rather dramatic impact on financial markets, but that is an opportunity for all those not obsessed with taking pictures of themselves.
Opinion
6
June 2017
Investment Rules: Pick your moments to be contrarian
–
Too often investors, in time of success, like to be considered contrarian. It’s the appeal of being a successful maverick, on hindsight.
Opinion
22
May 2017
Investment Rules: Don’t stick to your principles
–
Let me give you a very simple example why my investment principles change subject to the environment we are in.
Research
21
April 2017
Gold: Hedge, safe-haven or just a malleable mineral?
–
Considered undisputed by some as to its allure and perceived intrinsic value, gold has had, and continues to have, a profound impact on economic, cultural and environmental values.